Swinburne's Jonathan Lowe has simulated the race 10,000 times on computer and found Valentino Rossi to be a 69 per cent chance of victory at Victoria's Phillip Island, despite not having won either of the past two rounds of the world championship in Japan and Malaysia ? after 10 earlier victories this season on his four-stroke Honda.

World champion Rossi's fellow Italian Max Biaggi, who beat him last Sunday at Sepang in Kuala Lumpur, is given a 12 per cent chance of winning at Phillip Island on his four-stroke Yamaha.

Simulations by Swinburne's Sports Statistics Unit in Melbourne, headed by Stephen Clarke, proved remarkably accurate for the 2001 Qantas Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix and the 2002 Foster's Australian Formula One Grand Prix.

Japan's Tohru Ukawa, Rossi's teammate in the Honda factory squad, is the only other rider given a double-figure chance of victory on Sunday. Brazilian veteran Alex Barros is the next best chance at 6 per cent on the four-stroke Honda he has ridden in the past two races.  Italian Loris Capirossi is the only rider on one of the traditional 500cc two-stroke bikes given a chance of winning against the might of the new 990cc four-strokes.

Lowe found Capirossi to have just a 1 per cent chance, with Japan's Daijiro Kato a 2 per cent chance on his four-stroke Honda and Spaniard Carlos Checa a 1 per cent chance on his four-stroke Yamaha.

American Kenny Roberts, 500c world champion two years ago, is one of the other 15 riders in the race who the Swinburne simulations suggest cannot win.

Apart from Rossi's overwhelming odds for victory, the world champion is given a 15 per cent chance of coming second, 2 per cent chance of finishing third and 1 per cent that he will be fourth ? and 14 per cent that he will not finish.

Lowe found that Biaggi could finish anywhere down to 14th but had a 20 per cent chance he will not finish. Australia's Garry McCoy, whose 500cc Yamaha has been increasingly outpaced by the four-strokes this season, is given just a slight chance of a podium (top-three finish), but a 76 per cent chance of scoring world championship points.

New Australian GP rider Andrew Pitt is given a 33 per cent chance of scoring points, with Lowe seeing him possibly finishing between 10th and 15th. Pitt, the 2001 world champion in the supersports class of racing, gave Kawasaki's new GP bike its first finish at his debut in the premier two-wheel series in Malaysia last weekend.

• Oct 16 - Round 15 - Some interesting statistics in preview to this weekend's Australian GP

• Oct 16 - News - Kawasaki will show the new ZX-6R and ZX-6RR models next to the trick new Z1000 at the Australian GP

• Oct 16 - Calendar - Revised 2003 MotoGP calendar

• Oct 16 - News - Colin Edwards has stated that his deal with Aprilia is now done.  He will be on an Aprilia GP machine with Michelin tyres

• Oct 16 - Round 15 - Yamaha will show off the 2003 R1, R6, YZ450 and YZ250, WR450 and Road Star Warrior at the Grand Prix this weekend.  As a special treat a YZR-M1 MotoGP machine will be displayed on Saturday and Sunday

• Oct 16 - Round 15 - Happy Birthday Casey Stoner.  The quick kid turns 17 today and will celebrate with a flight over Melbourne and Phillip Island with RAAF Roulettes, lucky boy!

• Oct 15 - Round 15 - Happy Birthday Craig Coxhell - Craig Coxhell and Radar's Team Yamaha tested at Phillip Island recently and young Coxhell proved to have the speed on his more experienced team-mates.  He is hoping for a big showing in the GP support races.  The Shepparton local turned 20 today

• Oct 15 - Round 15 - Josh Brookes broke his scaphoid while testing recently but will battle on and race this weekend in the support race for the GP, calling Dr. Costa...........

• Oct 15 - Round 15 - Suzuki preview Phillip Island

• Oct 15 - Round 15 - Dorna preview this weekend's Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix

• Oct 15 - Round 15 - University number crunchers rate the rider odds for a win at Phillip Island this weekend

• Oct 15 - Round 15 - Honda's hot new CBR600RR will be shown at the Australian Grand Prix this week. Suzuki will show off the 2003 GSX-R1000, SV1000 and SV650

• Oct 14 - Round 15 - Marlboro Yamaha preview this weekend's Australian GP

• Oct 14 - Round 15 - GP riders start arriving in Australia today for this weekend's Australian GP.  Valentino Rossi will be on the Gold Coast early this week before heading to Phillip Island.  Two jumbo jets carrying the machinery will arrive in Melbourne tomorrow

• Oct 14 - Walk back in time - Last year's Phillip Island GP