In the aftermath of the duel of the decade at the Twin Ring Motegi between Championship leader Marc Marquez (Repsol Honda Team) and title rival Andrea Dovizioso (Ducati Team) – which the Italian won – the dust must settle quickly in order to be kicked up once more as MotoGP heads for the Michelin Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix at Phillip Island.
After a long commute from Melbourne or elsewhere, as the bridge at San Remo comes into view, beckoning to those who are on their way to one of the most spectacular Grand Prix circuits in the world. There is no other track on Earth quite like this one.
There also few where such extremes of weather can be experienced. Forecasts suggest we are in for a mainly dry weekend, but at Phillip Island, the weather can change in an instant…
MotoGP 2017 – Round 16 – Phillip Island
As the paddock arrives in 2017, it’s Marquez ahead and by just 11 points. The reigning Champion will go into the race as the favourite to tame the 12 undulating, iconic corners of the Island, taking into account both his record in 2017 and his speed at the track.
Marquez has in fact only finished one premier class race in Australia – the scintillating Island Battle in 2015, which he won. In 2016 he crashed out of the lead once already Champion, in 2014 he did the same, and he has been on pole for the last three years at the track. It was also the stage of one of his most memorable Moto2 performances in 2011: starting from the back due to a penalty, Marquez picked his way through the field to the podium.
With eight podiums now in the last nine races this season in MotoGP – missing out only once due to a technical fault at Silverstone – Marquez’ speed will be hard to match. He has a target on his back as the points leader already, and this weekend it gets bigger.
But Ducati, too, can win at Phillip Island. Casey Stoner took the Borgo Panigale factory onto the top step from 2007 to 2010, and the mythical marque were also on the podium in 2015.
But when it comes to Andrea Dovizioso on the GP17, what do the statistics seem to matter? The Italian has rewritten history already this season, and Motegi gave no sign that he is about to stop. He has been on the podium before at the Island, and he just took his fifth victory of the year. Moreover, he did it by beating Marquez on the last lap, at the last corner, in some of the most torrential conditions ever raced – that marking the first time in the premier class that Marquez has lost out on victory when going into the final lap in the lead.
As a credential, that’s hard to beat. Dovizioso said before the Japanese GP that he’ll fight to the end. On Sunday, he showed he meant it.
And yet the winning hand at the Island may not prove a pair. Maverick Viñales (Movistar Yamaha MotoGP) is fast – very fast – at Phillip Island, and was sixth as a rookie before getting on the podium last year. He’s won at the track in Moto2 – as a rookie – and faces a 41 point deficit to the top. It sounds a lot, but anything can happen.
His teammate Valentino Rossi could be another to watch at the top, as the ‘Doctor’ looks to put the Japanese GP behind him. Rossi has won at the Island six times in the premier class – from 2001 to 2005, and again in 2014 – and has nothing to lose.The only other names on the grid to have graced the top step in Australia are Cal Crutchlow (LCR Honda) and Jorge Lorenzo (Ducati Team).
Crutchlow took a stunning win last year and will want to hit the ground running in 2017 after crashing out at Motegi.
Lorenzo won in 2013 as well as having taken victory in the lower classes at the venue. He will want to strike back after sixth in Japan despite leading initially, as will compatriot Dani Pedrosa (Repsol Honda Team), who will be another planning to get back in the mix at the front after both men made it onto the podium at Aragon and then suffered more difficult Motegi. Pedrosa has a pole and podiums at Phillip Island, too.
Beyond last year’s winner Crutchlow, there is a lot at stake for Independent Teams. Johann Zarco (Monster Yamaha Tech 3) is now 41 points clear of teammate Jonas Folger in the standings and must finish in the top six at the Island to take the Rookie of the Year title, and Folger will not be racing as he continues to recover from a virus.
Folger is replaced by Australian Broc Parkes, former MotoGP rider and current YART EWC rider – who will be joining Jack Miller (EG 0,0 Marc VDS) to fly the flag at home.
Miller must be passed fit following his broken leg, but is expected to be back in action at his home race. Miller took part in a rider visit to the Old Melbourne Gaol today.
Danilo Petrucci (Octo Pramac Racing) is on Zarco’s trail for the top Independent Team honours, too, now only 14 points behind the Frenchman after his stunning podium last time out. Then there’s Aleix Espargaro (Aprilia Racing Team Gresini), who wants more after P7 in Japan despite having had top three pace for much of the weekend.
Japan also saw the best results of the season so far for both Hamamatsu factory riders Andrea Iannone and Alex Rins at Team Suzuki Ecstar. Iannone eventually got the better of his rookie teammate to take fourth, but Rins completed the top five for his best ever result as he now gets into gear following trouble with injury.
Red Bull KTM Factory Racing, who had both riders in Q2 at Motegi, keep pushing forward – with more points taken in the race.
The points, the gap and the maths began to take over mid-season as we looked ahead to try and predict the final countdown, but the statistics aren’t writing the script in 2017. Barreling headlong through one of the most spectacular seasons in history, Marquez and Dovizioso are penning that rarest of classics – a blockbuster with critical acclaim. To follow Motegi, the next act will have to be something special. Luckily enough, the stage is Phillip Island.
The curtain goes up on Sunday 22nd October at 1600 local time.
ESPARGARO Aleix 41 SPA 62 Aprilia Racing Team Gresini
MILLER Jack 43 AUS 56 EG 0,0 Marc VDS
REDDING Scott 45 GBR 56 Octo Pramac Racing
IANNONE Andrea 29 ITA 50 Team Suzuki Ecstar
BAZ Loris 76 FRA 45 Reale Avintia Racing
ESPARGARO Pol 44 SPA 42 Red Bull KTM Factory Racing
RINS Alex 42 SPA 38 Team Suzuki Ecstar
RABAT Tito 53 SPA 29 EG 0,0 Marc VDS
ABRAHAM Karel 17 CZE 28 Pull&Bear Aspar Team
BARBERA Hector 8 SPA 25 Reale Avintia Racing
PIRRO Michele 51 ITA 18 Ducati Test Team
SMITH Bradley 38 GBR 14 Red Bull KTM Factory Racing
KALLIO Mika 36 FIN 11 Red Bull KTM Factory Racing
LOWES Sam 22 GBR 5 Aprilia Racing Team Gresini
NAKASUGA Katsuyuki 21 JPN 4 Yamalube Yamaha Factory Racing
GUINTOLI Sylvain 50 FRA 1 Team Suzuki Ecstar
Morbidelli and Luthi arrive in Australia just 19 points apart
After the flag at Motegi, it seemed as if Franco Morbidelli (EG 0,0 Marc VDS) had used his controlled ride in the wet to grow his advantage to 24 points. Not so, as it was then announced that the winner at Misano, Dominique Aegerter, had been disqualified from the San Marino GP for a technical infringement. Who had been second? Tom Lüthi (CarXpert Interwetten), Morbidelli’s Championship challenger. Now promoted to first in that race, the Swiss rider was therefore awarded his second win of the year, and that changes things: 19-points separate the two men, with Phillip Island another of the tracks on which Lüthi took victory last season.
That was the headline of the race last year, until giving the gap to second a closer look: +0.010 seconds. And who was the man second across the line? Morbidelli.
It is fitting, then, that the two men now return to the Island in another duel, this time in the standings – and it makes a mouthwatering prospect of the race. Will we see a repeat? Only time can tell.
Last year it was 0.01 seconds, this year it’s 19 points that separate Lüthi and Morbidelli. Will the Italian keep his cool and increase his advantage? Or does Lüthi have an ace up his sleeve for the Island?
The title fight may now be a mathematical battle of two, but that’s certainly not how it will play out on the track.
Alex Marquez (EG 0,0 Marc VDS) – winner in Motegi in a tactical masterclass for his third victory of the year – and Miguel Oliveira (Red Bull KTM Ajo) are battling over third in standings, and both will head into the weekend focused on the top step.
Mattia Pasini (Italtrans Racing Team) likewise, and there are plenty more with their sights set high: Takaaki Nakagami (Idemitsu Honda Team Asia) – polesitter at Motegi, Aegerter, podium finishers Hafizh Syahrin (Petronas Raceline Malaysia) and Xavi Vierge (Tech 3 Racing) – as well as Francesco Bagnaia (Sky Racing Team VR46), who was confirmed as Rookie of the Year in Japan.
Remy Gardner (Tech 3 Racing) lines up to fly the flag on home turf.
We’ll find out at 1420 on Sunday – two hours later than normal – as Moto2 do battle at the Michelin Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix.
Moto2 Championship Points Standings
Franco MORBIDELLI Kalex ITA 256
Thomas LUTHI Kalex SWI 237
Alex MARQUEZ Kalex SPA 180
Miguel OLIVEIRA KTM POR 166
Francesco BAGNAIA Kalex ITA 146
Mattia PASINI Kalex ITA 135
Takaaki NAKAGAMI Kalex JPN 128
Simone CORSI Speed Up ITA 96
Hafizh SYAHRIN Kalex MAL 86
Xavi VIERGE Tech 3 SPA 79
Dominique AEGERTER Suter SWI 74
Brad BINDER KTM RSA 69
Jorge NAVARRO Kalex SPA 60
Luca MARINI Kalex ITA 59
Lorenzo BALDASSARRI Kalex ITA 48
Moto3 – Mir looks to take the throne in Australia
Joan Mir (Leopard Racing) had a tougher time at the Twin Ring Motegi than expected, finishing outside the points for only the second time in his as yet short but illustrious GP career.
Lengthening the odds was Romano Fenati (Marinelli Rivacold Snipers), who took a stunning victory in the torrential conditions to gain a whole 25 points on the Majorcan, so now it’s take two – with the same situation in the points. Mir is five ahead of the number with which he must leave the Island if he is to secure the Championship; 55 ahead of Fenati.
It’s also now a two horse race. Aron Canet (Estrella Galicia 0,0) finished just off the podium in Japan and in doing so lost his shot at a comeback, leaving only Mir and Fenati to fight it out at the top. In a suitable full circle if Mir is crowned Champion, the Island is where the Majorcan made his GP debut, in 2015 – the perfect venue for another push for glory.
With eight race wins so far this season and few finishes off the podium, it seems a likely outcome. But anything can happen and Fenati will be riding on a wave of confidence after his stunning win, which also made him the Moto3™ rider with the most victories since the class was introduced in 2012: 10. And who knows what the weather will bring…
Lining up to complicate the situation for the Championship leader is a cast of quality and ambition: Fenati, Canet – a podium finisher in Australia last season, Fabio Di Giannantonio and Jorge Martin (Del Conca Gresini Moto3), John McPhee (British Talent Team), Marcos Ramirez (Platinum Bay Real Estate)…the fight in the upper echelons of the standings is intense, as it always is on track for the lightweight class.
There will also be some home talent looking to make an impression, with wildcard Tom Toparis (Cube Racing) back on track after getting to the finish line despite difficult conditions in Japan – and a familiar face lining up once again: Maria Herrera. The Spaniard fills in for Albert Arenas at Mahindra Aspar Moto3 after Arenas broke his hand in Japan.
55 points clear, with 50 left to play for – it makes good reading for Mir. If he wins the race or comes second, he’s Champion. If Fenati can’t gain more than five points on him, Mir is Champion. But how will it play out on race day? Tune in on Sunday at 1300 to find out.
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